Miss Rona is strong, but Mama Ru is stronger.

All season, we have been eagerly awaiting news about this year’s finale. My question for weeks has been “How are they going to do the final lip sync if they can’t meet in person?”

Well, it’s official: There will be a web cam lip sync battle in Drag Race‘s Season 12 finale.

So, with only three eligible queens remaining, who is most likely to snatch the crown (from the comfort of their own living room)? Here are my power rankings for Gigi Goode, Crystal Methyd, and Jaida Essence Hall, in order of least to most likely to win Drag Race this year.

3. Jaida Essence Hall

First, let me just say that, while there is a clear front-runner at this point in the show, all the remaining queens have a real shot at winning this season. As Jackie Cox pointed out this episode, a queen with only one challenge win snatched the crown last year (Oddly enough). With such fierce queens remaining, it’s really conceivable that any of them could win.

So, why do I have Jaida in third place?

As I said in last week’s “Will Jaida Essence Hall win?” post, Jaida is easily the most glamorous queen this season. Michele Visage claimed that there was nothing – not one thing! – wrong with Jaida’s runway lewk this episode, and I agree. Absolutely flawless. Honestly, I was shocked she didn’t win this challenge.

Another strong positive in Jaida’s column? This episode, everyone was so good that Ru basically had to eenie-meenie-minie-mo it, going off report cards to help determine the queens’ placement in the challenge. Guess who she didn’t put in the bottom? The Essence of beauty herself.

The only rationale I have for this third-place pick is that Jaida’s narrative trajectory hasn’t been as strong as the other girls’ this season. Crystal has the lovable oddball effect that has won so many queens the crown before, and Gigi has won the most challenges and shown the most versatility.

Basically, Jaida is fierce and still totally has a shot. The show hasn’t been as focused on her story as the other queens, but it wouldn’t be too shocking if Ru crowned her during the Skype / Zoom / FaceTime finale this week.

Jaida Essence Hall’s likelihood of winning Drag Race Season 12: 25%

2. Crystal Methyd

Crystal is basically the opposite of Jaida. She hasn’t won as many challenges, and hasn’t presented the same level of glitzy glamour. But what she lacks in traditional beauty she makes up for in personality and uniqueness.

The good news is that, so far, Ru has seemed to live for Miss Methyd. She is the wackiest queen left in the race which, again, is a winning trait among queens of seasons past. She sticks out from the crowd, and that’s a quality we have no choice but to stan.

The bad news is that this episode, Ru was given a chance to basically put any two queens in the bottom two, and she chose Jackie and Crystal. So now, the question is how far Crystal’s charm will get her on her way to the crown. Is it enough to beat out her gag-worthy competitors, or will she fall short of the title of America’s next drag superstar?

My main reason for putting her above Jaida is her uniqueness. Again, we have seen odd queens win the crown before with only one challenge win. So Crystal definitely has a chance here.

Overall, it’s hard not to root for Crystal. I think most of us would love to see her win, but it’s not a sure thing as we head into the finale this week.

Crystal Methyd’s likelihood of winning Drag Race Season 12: 30%

1. Gigi Goode

This week, Gigi joined the tiny echelon of queens who have won four challenges in a main season of Drag Race (if you’re curious, Shea Coulee and Sharon Needles are the only others). This is a huge achievement. Gigi is a true original, with a little of everything for Mama Ru.

The only real concern for Gigi is the history of similar queens ending up in second place.

Consider these points: Shea Coulee won four challenges, but lost Season 9 to Sasha Velour; Alaska never fell into the bottom two, but lost Season 5 to Jinkx Monsoon; Brooke Lynn Hytes won 3 challenges and placed high in a record nine episodes, but lost Season 11 to Yvie Oddly.

So, a queen’s track record clearly isn’t the deciding factor in choosing a winner. Having a unique story or being an underdog actually seems more consequential in snatching the crown.

However, I’m still quite high on Miss Goode. Gigi (and her mom) can craft outfits the house down *tongue pop*! She has been great in musical and acting challenges, and won this year’s Snatch Game. And this week, Ru had the opportunity to choose between several neck-and-neck queens for the win. Who did she pick? Gigi.

I stand by my statement that each queen could still win, but Gigi is the clear front-runner this season.

Gigi Goode’s likelihood of winning Drag Race Season 12: 45%

Thanks for joining me for tea today! Stay tuned for more RuPaul’s Drag Race content after this week’s Season 12 finale. Xoxo!